economists’ view that the Bank of Canada will begin raising its benchmark rate in the second quarter – either in April or May – or at the very least in July, once the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to end its US$600 billion asset purchase plan.
Not so says Scotiabank. It’s among the few research houses on Bay Street that believe the Bank of Canada, led by governor Mark Carney, will wait much longer – until October to be more precise. (Meanwhile, analysts at Capital Economics have reiterated their view the central bank remains on hold for all of 2011.) The main culprit: A weak US dollar, which could drive the loonie to US$1.08 by the end of the year.
Scotiabank economists Derek Holt and Gorica Djeric offered a detailed explanation of its view in a note to clients.
Click here for a summary of Scotiabank’s arguments in the Financial Post.